Who Wants Hezbollah to Stay Armed?
A new study by XCEPT researchers Nils Mallock and Nafees Hamid, published in Foreign Policy, presents empirical evidence on why nearly half of Lebanon’s population resists Hezbollah’s disarmament, even though only 18 percent actively support the group politically.
Drawing on a nationally representative survey of more than 2,000 Lebanese citizens conducted in December 2025, the research tests three dominant explanations – sectarian identity, service provision, and security from Israeli aggression – and challenges all three. The decisive factor is moral grievance against the Lebanese state itself. Citizens who had lost trust in government and felt a deep sense of injustice were 29 percentage points more likely to oppose disarmament, regardless of sect, class, or geography.
The findings add a further layer of complexity: years of Israeli strikes have degraded the infrastructure a reforming state would need to rebuild public trust. While that destruction continues, the state cannot build the credibility required. Until the state can offer that security and be seen to do so, the authors argue, the case for Hezbollah’s disarmament will remain unconvincing to many.
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This publication was produced as part of the XCEPT programme, a programme funded by UK International Development from the UK government. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies.
