By Dr Hanna Notte

Key Points:

• Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, China, Iran and North Korea have emerged—each country in its own way—as important enablers of the Russian war machine.
• Russia’s growing alignment with China, Iran and North Korea has raised alarms in Western capitals that a new four-way “axis” is posing a formidable challenge not just on the Ukrainian battlefield, but to the liberal international order in more fundamental ways.
• Labels like “axis of autocracies”, an “axis of the sanctioned”, or an “axis of upheaval” can obscure more than they reveal. The depth of alignment among the axis members varies across policy areas.
• An excessive focus on the four countries risks neglecting other actors in the “outer ring” of the axis which either stand to benefit from increased cooperation among them, or which will impede the formation of an exclusionary four-member club.
• Despite its illiberal, revisionist tendencies, the four-way axis lacks a shared, concrete vision for a future global order.
• However, these ambiguities and imperfections should not lead the United Kingdom to underestimate the challenges posed by this axis especially in relation to illicit procurement of critical technologies, knowledge sharing, and fragmentation of the global order.
• To help mitigate these challenges, this paper proposes HMG strengthen multilateral alliances; enhance trade sanctions and export controls against the axis; support regional allies’ deterrence and defence capabilities; enhance intelligence gathering and coordinate strategic disclosures; promote diplomatic engagement; and engage global partners on their own terms and on the basis of these countries’ own interests rather than through the lens of great power competition.

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