The troubled history of the Arab Spring sheds light on the fate of Iran’s uprising. It explains why the Islamic Republic continues to survive waves of mass protest, yet may ultimately be approaching a tipping point.

Tens of thousands took to the streets of Tehran last week to attend state-sponsored rallies and proclaim their support for the beleaguered Islamic Republic. ‘Death to Israel! Death to America’, they cried, chanting the very slogans that have come to characterise the regime’s aggressive sabre-rattling. Officials who addressed the crowds were equally incendiary. ‘We have heard that you threatened Iran’, said Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, speaker of the Iranian Parliament, addressing President Trump. Characterising him as ‘delusional’ and a ‘gambler’, Qalibaf continued: ‘Iran will teach you a lesson that will never be forgotten. Come, and be burned by the fire of Iran’s defenders.’ Without a hint of irony, he also threatened Trump by invoking the words of Qasem Soleimani, Iran’s infamous military commander whom Trump dramatically and unexpectedly assassinated in 2020.

Dr Shiraz Maher

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