Key Points:

• Neither Russia nor Ukraine can achieve total military victory, and good-faith negotiations with Putin are unlikely. The West, as a collective, is unable or unwilling to provide Ukraine with what it needs to win. President-elect Trump is eager to ‘solve’ the war in terms that appear favourable to Russia.
• Yet Europe cannot countenance the defeat of Ukraine. The war’s current trajectory already places unsustainable demands on Ukraine’s society, armed forces, and economy, exacerbated by unstable Western politics, on which the country’s survival depends. Should Trump’s peace plans fail, this untenable situation could lead to political and civil unrest with dire consequences for the war, regional security, and Ukraine’s allies, UK included. Should they succeed, the consequences for Ukraine will be even graver.
• Without the means or will to develop or implement a strategy for ensuring a Ukrainian victory, Europe and Ukraine should negotiate a ‘Safe Haven’ strategy. This would designate Kyiv and western Ukraine as safe havens. The U.K. is well-placed to champion this proposal, which builds upon some important historical precedents.
• To avoid escalation, the process would begin by phasing in bilateral air-defence sanctuaries. The strategy would include long-term military, defensive, economic, and humanitarian commitments from a European coalition to Ukrainian territories outside the Safe Haven zone. An incremental, regional approach will facilitate Ukraine’s revitalisation and remilitarisation, as selected areas attract investment, rebuild, and grow economically.

CSNS

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